Session 10: Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Session 10: Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Technology Assessment and Forecasting as prof has mentioned, it is technique of analysis based on past and current trends of technologies used as a platform to be forecasted for the future. And can be a measure for societies to pre-empt any negative circumstances expected to happen from the problems societies are creating today.

The video prof showed us in class about Siemens megatrends clearly depicts that their assessment and forecasting for the future by 2025 is from the challenges we are actually facing currently. Be it for solutions for water, mobility, industry, healthcare, safety & security as well as power will become applicable. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1qh2nLddKs . Basically, I feel that this advertising provides us with the developing mind-fame of the future and what we expected to happen next.

Technology assessment and forecasting can be said as a method to leverage on technology innovation.
Some of the sectors of national importance being focused are the Agriculture, Agro- food processing, Health, Bioprocess & Bio-products, Automobile, Education and SMEs. And often, using global trends to track the future would have the opportunity cost between costs and benefits. An example of the cost might be losing economies of scale, while benefits would be achieving a healthier environment. With all that said, we might be wondering why the use of technology and forecasting? Let’s have a look at what are the drivers to it.

a)      The exponential growth in the range of new technologies with potential world changing significance.

b)      And this leads to the need understand  the implications of new technological innovations in terms of economic, social, ethical/legal, environmental as well as other terms.

c)       Thus, prioritizing the key important aspects when it comes to R&D of new innovations and technologies as well as with the limited resources (especially in developing countries).

One of the readings covers on the perspective of futurology. Futurology is defined as a scientific method of predicting the future. It tells us that we need to understand factors that affect our present because they are expected to shape things and events in the future. So why engage in futurology? This is because there is a concern for the future hence there is an attempt to predict it, and this involves techniques and methodologies which is quite scientific. One key takeaway point would be: there are many creative and inventive dreamers in the past that had realized their dreams. An example would be how Leonardo Da Vinci who visualized many inventive gadgets and contraptions that belonged to the future.

Consequently, there are differences as well as similarities between futurologist and science-fiction writers. Science-fiction writers visualize the future, creating situations and scenarios that are probable to happen. However, futurologists try to predict and invent the future, looking at the possible scenarios, seeking the most desirable point of view of larger segments of society and take proactive measures to make the particular scenario happen. However, the methods cannot be totally logical or scientific, only at best be heuristic.  Science-fiction sometimes is a result of individual efforts, while futurology is a collective effort of thinking people. 

Ideally, futurology is not exactly a science although the intentions of is to make it scientific as possible. They just offer the best option for the direction of things to happen. Lastly, there are current concerns of futurology to consider too; relating to global concerns – national concerns – concerns that are firm-specific. Therefore then relevancy of this aspect is important to nations and economies are concerned with the macro-picture and the need to scan the future for the emerging trends in various phase.

In summary to the end of this session, here is an interesting video for our reference of what technology assessment and forecasting has been changing over the years. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2nqWkwbWqs.  And another video relates on the effective forecasting of the desired and the likely: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-eTGJbCnkE.

Adding on, where we are today for “cloud” computing is still fresh and in danger of becoming diluted and meaningless. The next video will show how cloud computing are used today and how technological assessment and forecasting will be a platform in provide the technology and management pitfalls that are unaware. Thus, creating an opportunity for maximizing the business value of cloud computing. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrxLm945JGY .

Session 9 – Emerging and Future Technologies

Session 9 – Emerging and Future Technologies

This week session was to understand the potential emerging and future technologies which will become the next hype. The topic is very interesting as it makes people wonder what technologies are the next big things. Will it follow the trend of IPhones where everyone thought nothing much of it at the beginning phase? Will Microsoft Xbox 360 kinects be the next most sought for gaming device by the consumers? I reckon it will because of its stunning design, unique interface experience and the quirky features. I am not sure about you, but it will definitely tempt me to purchase it.

The video prof showed the class on plastic logic showed us how plastics would be used in the future can be. This actually triggers my mind that this technology is somewhat already in place during my primary school time. One example is the use of bendable plastic ruler that works quite similar to this technology, that when it is in contact with a hard object, it will bend to form a circular shape and it can re-shaped back into a straight ruler again. Plastic logic technology is something that’s quite fresh, easily to understand and simple to use.

When it comes to emerging and future technologies, imagination plays a crucial role because we are only limited to what we know.

Another imaginative video shown was on claytronics – an example of how malleable the future can be. Where we could actually shape our products into what we want, from an imagination to reality.

I feel that augmented reality would be far more sought for as compared to virtual reality. Why? Because augmented reality improvises and enhances our real life experiences, it makes things done simpler, easily, faster and much more efficient. Although virtual reality too has its advantages, the tangible feel to it lacks some importance to our live.

I found an article from the readings material that discussed on the issues of design technology. Basically, it gives an overview of how mobile computing has evolved over the years, till today’s fanciful laptops. In the past, product’s specifications and features are considered to be the first glance consumers seek to purchase while the designs are not mandatory. However, it has drastically changed the purchasing phase, where product designs are increasingly becoming an important aspect together with its specifications during purchase.

Another interesting issue from the readings is the idea of “Grey goo” and “Green Goo”. FYI, more information could be found on this site: http://www.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2004/07/64235

Basically, the debate about the new NANO threat of the future; “Green Goo” is becoming a more apparent threat as compared to “Gray Goo”. This term is the meaning of self-replicating machines populating the planet. “Green goo” is just how biology is used to create new materials and new artificial life forms. The risks from green goo demand the most urgent foresight and caution because with nanobiotech, researchers have the power to create completely new organisms that have never existed on Earth – an aspect mentioned in the report.

In summary, our future technologies can be expected to be somewhat mind blowing. To end off, I would like to share a video regarding on Pen PC. That’s right, a Personal computer Pen. Who knows, laptop may become obsolete in the future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTxVw8WYrcg . Enjoy!

Energy and World Change: Past, Present, Future

Energy and World Change: Past, Present, Future

Considering some of the world’s industrial change in the use of energy as compared from the past till present to future, we see the result of many other solutions towards the use of energy for global climate, pollutions for better environmentally benefits today. In the past, industries (Transportation, medical, agriculture and manufacturing) have been on a hot and cold trend towards the use of alternative energy measures for natural resources. 

So why has the use of alternative energy become more feasible as compared in the past? One factor we can consider, “If global warming was never an issue, will environmentally production and innovation exist?” I would believe so. Because even without these issues, the products of new and innovation of alternative energy will still come about – take for example the use of simple mirrors in directing sun light’s energy to create heat as a source of energy.

Foreseeing the next industrial revolution – it will be expecting a shift from current unsustainable fossil fuel based energy market to a more renewable energy alternative based market . And who knows, nuclear energy may become the next big thing.

Let’s take a further step in the analysis, are we facing an energy crisis, or is there a crisis of ignorance. I would agree that there is a crisis of ignorance. Here is a video to share; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fVI3BRBC6o&feature=related. It relates to issues on how today global renewable energy is potential remains abundant and only if we CHOOSE to use it, it will be an advantage for us. No doubt we are using minority of road to renewable energy. Some examples such as Stabilize population growth and enhance trade, cooperation and peace etc... Considering the fact that even without new technologies, it is already possible of us to take a step out of out hidden shell to face this problem of renewable usage only if we were to choose for, given today’s advancements.

Another interesting video I would like to share is how public media is able to be a popular platform for engaging a global public concern, and through educating them and moving them into action might be a creative way to help change the demand and supply for renewable resources. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-hzUGFD-Gc&feature=related

This video link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5urRA-nypkM&feature=related also introduced the various types of renewable resources extensively with some great examples for our knowledge.

In the recent years, there have been other drivers which contributed to Global Energy Change too. Some of the examples are listed as follows:

ü  Rapidly rising energy prices

ü  Rising energy consumption and need for economic development– dealing with inequities )

ü  Need for sustainability (given environmental impact of energy)- Renewable Energy Sources

ü  New technologies and approaches

·         energy conserving technologies – increasing energy efficiency (energy/GDP)

·         Pollution prevention/reduction technologies

However, such changes bring about limitations too. One key issue that is important is the energy security. There are a number of concerns and fears for oil and other fossil fuel depletion (peak oil, etc), our reliance on foreign sources of energy, the rise of geopolitics (such as supporting dictatorships, rising terrorism, “stability” of nations that supply energy). Energy needs of poorer countries, and demands from advancing developing countries such as China and India. Economic efficiency versus population growth debate as well as environmental issues, in particular climate change.

One issue that Prof brought up was on: What will the Middle Eastern countries do with the wealth they generate from petroleum? Middle Eastern counties have been investing into other areas of developments with their wealth of petroleum, and failed to consider the fact that their resources depletes one day. This means more needs to be done on renewable resources.

It is seen that dung is another renewable resource. But will society accept the fact that dung is being use as a renewable energy? I doubt everyone will agree with using dung; however I have came across a video that showed the locals in South Asia, they are open to the concept of using cows’ dung as renewable energy; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JU8Os3yNEI, it can be burned as fuel to cook with. In fact, the idea of dung as a renewable actually works well if only we choose to use it. Thus, the I feel that dung would be a feasible approach for renewable since it will never deplete and why not capitalize this in areas of technological which do not affect human’s negativity views.

From the readings, the worldenergy.org described that the pursuit of energy sustainability should involved in energy policy making that has to meet multiple highlights of – economic development, national security, social welfare, and environmental protection needs to be governed by principles relating to long term energy sustainability. It shows that many countries are pursuing energy sustainability through ambitious and versatile programmes.

However, there are few implications for policymakers, such as rebalance strategic ambitions in light of energy sustainability goals – requires a transparent consideration of policy trade-offs, the develop policy frameworks that are sufficiently flexible that is able to respond both to strategic market disruption and tactical developments in fast moving areas (renewable energy installations) and reducing construction lead times and ensure the reliable connection of new generation assets to transmission grids. There is also a need to pre-empt potential issues in the implementation of policies and to reduce the likelihood of hesitancy about polices. The effect of enhancing stakeholder engagement and securing greater acceptance for critical energy sector transformations is an important stage to review on too.

Apart from that, energy industry needs to cope with long term disruptive changes in resource availability and the likelihood of significant regulatory impacts, policy priorities and more volatile commodity markets as well as exploring with government how the risks of major investments can be reduced, resulting in lower costs for consumers.

WEEK 8 - Recess Week

From youtube, chance upon a quite interesting video i want to share. Visit this link to see how "Entrepreneurs can change the world": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6MhAwQ64c0&feature=related.

It shows on how we should take the initative to make the change for the next generations. Also, embarking to change the world is never an impossible mission.