Session 10: Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Session 10: Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Technology Assessment and Forecasting as prof has mentioned, it is technique of analysis based on past and current trends of technologies used as a platform to be forecasted for the future. And can be a measure for societies to pre-empt any negative circumstances expected to happen from the problems societies are creating today.

The video prof showed us in class about Siemens megatrends clearly depicts that their assessment and forecasting for the future by 2025 is from the challenges we are actually facing currently. Be it for solutions for water, mobility, industry, healthcare, safety & security as well as power will become applicable. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1qh2nLddKs . Basically, I feel that this advertising provides us with the developing mind-fame of the future and what we expected to happen next.

Technology assessment and forecasting can be said as a method to leverage on technology innovation.
Some of the sectors of national importance being focused are the Agriculture, Agro- food processing, Health, Bioprocess & Bio-products, Automobile, Education and SMEs. And often, using global trends to track the future would have the opportunity cost between costs and benefits. An example of the cost might be losing economies of scale, while benefits would be achieving a healthier environment. With all that said, we might be wondering why the use of technology and forecasting? Let’s have a look at what are the drivers to it.

a)      The exponential growth in the range of new technologies with potential world changing significance.

b)      And this leads to the need understand  the implications of new technological innovations in terms of economic, social, ethical/legal, environmental as well as other terms.

c)       Thus, prioritizing the key important aspects when it comes to R&D of new innovations and technologies as well as with the limited resources (especially in developing countries).

One of the readings covers on the perspective of futurology. Futurology is defined as a scientific method of predicting the future. It tells us that we need to understand factors that affect our present because they are expected to shape things and events in the future. So why engage in futurology? This is because there is a concern for the future hence there is an attempt to predict it, and this involves techniques and methodologies which is quite scientific. One key takeaway point would be: there are many creative and inventive dreamers in the past that had realized their dreams. An example would be how Leonardo Da Vinci who visualized many inventive gadgets and contraptions that belonged to the future.

Consequently, there are differences as well as similarities between futurologist and science-fiction writers. Science-fiction writers visualize the future, creating situations and scenarios that are probable to happen. However, futurologists try to predict and invent the future, looking at the possible scenarios, seeking the most desirable point of view of larger segments of society and take proactive measures to make the particular scenario happen. However, the methods cannot be totally logical or scientific, only at best be heuristic.  Science-fiction sometimes is a result of individual efforts, while futurology is a collective effort of thinking people. 

Ideally, futurology is not exactly a science although the intentions of is to make it scientific as possible. They just offer the best option for the direction of things to happen. Lastly, there are current concerns of futurology to consider too; relating to global concerns – national concerns – concerns that are firm-specific. Therefore then relevancy of this aspect is important to nations and economies are concerned with the macro-picture and the need to scan the future for the emerging trends in various phase.

In summary to the end of this session, here is an interesting video for our reference of what technology assessment and forecasting has been changing over the years. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2nqWkwbWqs.  And another video relates on the effective forecasting of the desired and the likely: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-eTGJbCnkE.

Adding on, where we are today for “cloud” computing is still fresh and in danger of becoming diluted and meaningless. The next video will show how cloud computing are used today and how technological assessment and forecasting will be a platform in provide the technology and management pitfalls that are unaware. Thus, creating an opportunity for maximizing the business value of cloud computing. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrxLm945JGY .